A report from Norway’s Civil Aviation Authority outlines the potential risks posed by rockets launched from Sweden’s Esrange Space Centre over Norwegian airspace. It estimates that each launch could cost Norway more than 1.7 billion NOK (€146.45 million).
In August 2024, the Norwegian Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Fisheries tasked the Civil Aviation Authority of Norway with investigating the risks, socio-economic costs, and other consequences for Norwegian security and societal interests posed by potential rocket launches from Sweden passing over Norway. The completed report was presented on 25 February 2025 and made public on the CAA Norway website on 7 March. While the report’s summary states that there is not enough information to assess the “actual risks associated with such activities,” the document itself is more critical.
The report highlights flaws in the Swedish Space Corporation’s risk analysis (the commercial entity responsible for the Esrange Space Centre), particularly regarding population density along possible rocket flight paths:
“The analyses presented by SSC have not taken actual nor recent population data in the affected areas into account. Furthermore, neither the number of people living in the area nor the high number of tourists and other transient populations are represented. The affected areas in Norway are significantly more populated than the areas on the Swedish side, and it is not possible to find any trajectory from Esrange that does not overfly populated areas in Norway.”
The report also warns that any measures taken to reduce risks in Norway could severely impact local communities:
“Any risk-reducing measures implemented in Norway to reduce hazards from launches from Esrange Space Center, including within territorial waters, will have significant negative consequences for the population. Such measures could range from evacuation to requirements to stay indoors, limitation of tourism, suspension of local air, sea, and road traffic, as well as suspension of activity for coastal fishermen.”
While the full socio-economic costs of Esrange launches over Norway are not detailed, the report highlights the impact on oil and gas installations. Each launch could cost the industry approximately €146.45 million, assuming shutdowns last no more than five days. Given this potential economic impact, the report recommends that “no launches be permitted in areas where there is any risk to Norwegian oil and gas installations.”
If a launch does not pose a risk to oil and gas installations, the report recommends that “relevant Norwegian authorities assess the risks to people in Norway and Norwegian interests and determine whether they are acceptable.”
